Banning abortion is motivating moderate voters, polls show

Half of voters say the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down constitutional rights to abortion makes them more motivated to vote in next month’s midterm elections, particularly among Democrats and growing enthusiasm among those who live in states with abortion bans, according to a new poll by KFF.

The poll also showed that most voters, whether they are Democrats or Republicans, do not think abortion should be banned in cases of rape or incest, and they do not support laws that criminalize abortion providers and women who have abortions.

Results collected in late September by KFF’s regular survey of public opinion on health care issues highlight that even a majority of Republican voters oppose some laws that have tightly regulated access to abortion — including for rape victims — that are now in effect in Republican-led states like Texas and Missouri. However, states with such strict standards still allow abortion to save the life of the mother

Democrats currently hold control of the House of Representatives and the Senate by narrow margins, and with several close races underway, control of Congress could hinge on electoral votes. And while voters are less likely to choose a candidate on a single issue, an important issue can make them more likely to vote.

The KFF poll shows that neither party holds a significant “motivational advantage,” with more than half of Democratic and Republican voters reporting that they are more likely to vote in this election than in previous elections. Voters who said they were independents said they were less inclined to vote than in previous elections.

The difference was because of them. For voters who said they were more motivated, the top issue for Democrats was reproductive rights, while the top issues for Republicans were the economy and inflation. Independents were evenly split between abortion and the economy. 7 in 10 Democrats said they were inspired by the court’s decision, compared with 49% of independents and 32% of Republicans.

Among women of reproductive age, 44% said they were more motivated to vote this year, with 6 in 10 attributing their feelings to the court’s decision and more than 5 in 10 pointing to abortion laws in their home states.

Among voters living in states with complete abortion bans, 51% said their state’s law made them more motivated to vote, suggesting the likelihood of high Democratic voter turnout in several Republican states.

The poll showed 76% of voters are motivated to overturn the court’s decision Roe v. Wade Plan to vote for candidates who support abortion access.

The results also show striking agreement: More than 8 in 10 voters nationally oppose laws banning abortion in cases of rape or molestation — as do 8 in 10 voters who live in states with the strictest abortion bans, as well as more than 8 in 10 who live in states with abortion protections. 10 voters.

While 70% of Republican voters approved of the court’s decision, most Republicans also said they oppose laws that would ban all cases of abortion or criminalize having or having an abortion.

Seven in 10 Republican voters oppose banning abortion in cases of rape or incest. About 64% of Republicans oppose laws that would make it a crime for women to perform abortions, while 51% oppose laws that would make it a crime for a doctor to perform them.

One-third of Republicans oppose banning abortions once fetal cardiac activity is detected, usually about six weeks after a woman’s last menstrual cycle — which has become the basis for six-week abortion bans in several states.

The KFF poll also asked voters about Medicare changes under the Inflation Reduction Act, the landmark legislation approved by the Democratic-controlled Congress in August. About a third or fewer Americans are aware of the law’s health provisions, which include increasing financial subsidies for those who purchase health insurance in the Affordable Care Act marketplace, limiting Medicare beneficiaries’ out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs, and capping their insulin. costs, and allows the federal government to negotiate certain prescription drug prices for Medicare.

The poll found that Americans age 65 and older, who would benefit the most as Medicare’s primary beneficiaries, are more likely to vote for candidates who support changes in the law for health care costs.

The online and telephone survey was conducted September 15-26 with a sample of 1534 adults. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points, although sampling error may be greater within subgroups.

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